The Industry Today



There were new aircraft backlog and
engine order book records at the end of September.

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In September the aircraft backlog grew by 216 to reach the new high of 15,867. Also, during the month the number of engines on firm order grew by 288 taking the firm engine order book to the new high of 30,058. The aircraft backlog is now 124 larger than at the start of the year and the engine order book is 318 larger. The previous aircraft and engine backlog records were set at the end of March.

There were orders for 300 large commercial jet aircraft and 450 large civil jet engines in September. The aircraft order intake was the largest monthly intake this year, the second largest in the last 12 months and the third largest in the last two years. The aircraft orders were mostly single-aisles and mostly Airbus. Of the 300 aircraft ordered, 75 did not have an engine selection and if they had the engine order intake would have been larger, but it still would have been the second largest this year; there were orders for 630 engines in March.

It is worth pointing out that the reason the engine order book is not twice the aircraft backlog – there are only twin engine aircraft on backlog – is simply because there are over 800 aircraft currently on backlog without engine selections. Even the Total Engine Requirement figure (the total number of engines required for every large commercial jet on backlog) is not twice the size of the aircraft backlog. This is because there are aircraft on backlog which will never be delivered because the airlines that ordered them ceased to exist years ago. They presumably stay on the books because deposits were paid.

The single-aisle aircraft backlog is now 28 aircraft lower than at the start of this year but it is 805 aircraft larger than 12 months ago. The widebody backlog is now 152 aircraft larger than at the start of the year and 372 aircraft larger than 12 months ago. It is also the largest widebody backlog since October 2017.

The single-aisle engine order book is now 72 engines lower than at the start of the year but 1,150 engines larger than at the end of September last year. The current figure is actually the third largest ever. The widebody engine order book is now 390 engines larger than at the start of this year and 714 engines larger than at the end of September last year. This is impressive growth that works out at just over 18% but, perhaps more importantly, the current widebody engine order book is the largest since July 2017. Just over two years ago, it was at a low point. One surprising statistic in this context is that the current widebody engine order book is over 1,400 engines larger than it was at the end of September 2022, or 43.6% larger.

The growth in the aircraft backlog and engine order book can be put down to the volume of new orders. Perhaps having fewer aircraft deliveries and fewer engine installs this year than at the same time last year made some small contribution but it is mostly the aircraft and engine order intakes this year that have pushed the backlog figures up.

The current aircraft backlog represents years of work, even at 2018 production rates. That was the record year for aircraft deliveries. Something that is of some concern right now is that production constraints at Airbus and Boeing have resulted in fewer single-aisle and widebody aircraft deliveries (and associated engine installs) than at the same time last year. Boeing has also had a strike to contend with which has stopped production of all aircraft programs except the 787. But the 787 has also had production issues to the extent that there have been 14 fewer deliveries this year than in the same period last year. Boeing’s strike may now be over but by the end of September the company had delivered 80 fewer aircraft than by the end of September last year. It will take time for the company to get full production up and running again after the strike but what this boils down to is that there will be far fewer Boeing deliveries this year than last year.

Airbus has so far delivered nine more single-aisles and the same number of widebodies as by the end of September last year. COMAC delivered eight single-aisle C919s by the end of September which is an improvement of seven on last year’s total. Boeing, on the other hand, has delivered 57 fewer single-aisles and 23 fewer widebodies this year. The only Boeing program with more deliveries this year is the 767-2C with seven deliveries, just one more than a year ago.

So far this year there have been 678 single-aisle and 118 widebody aircraft deliveries. The single-aisle total is 41 lower than last year and the widebody total is 23 aircraft lower. This does not seem to be very much of a drop until one looks at the Boeing contribution. The U.S. manufacturer has been dogged with production issues and will not, this year, deliver anywhere near the 528 deliveries by the end of last year. In fact, Boeing may not deliver as many as 350 aircraft by the end of this year.

There is another aspect to fewer aircraft deliveries this year and that is fewer engine installs. So far there have been 1,592 new engine installs but that is 130 fewer than at the same time last year, made up of 82 fewer single-aisle aircraft engines and 48 fewer widebody engine installs. Only five engine programs have had more installs this year than by the end of September last year and the largest gain is 14 more installs (the LEAP-1C). The LEAP-1A is in second place with 10 more engine installs but there have been 110 fewer LEAP-1B installs, the largest drop of any aircraft program. There have been exactly the same number of PW1100G installs and eight more PW1500G installs

In the widebody engine segment only two engine programs have had more installs this year. There have been two more PW4000 installs and four more Trent 7000 installs. There has been no change to the number of Trent 1000 or Trent XWB install totals.

With a bit of luck, things will improve in 2025 and engine install numbers will be on an upward trend once again.